The crucial question that will be answered in the coming two state elections will be if PH and UMNO are better off running solo. Secondly the two state elections will show the DAP what options the party really has. Will their disaster in Sabah be repeated is the crucial test for them.

There have been many signs that major political parties will change alliances, based upon the Johor and Negeri Sembilan results. We have already seen PAS calling for voters to choose UMNO, if PAS is not running a candidate in the seat during the Johor campaign.

Johor will also test the one month old Bersama Party led by ex-PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli. They are presently an unknown quantity. Bersama is contesting 15 seats in Johor.

The key to watch in Johor is whether UMNO can do better than the 40 seats it had in the last assembly, and whether Bersama can be taken seriously.

So, what will the next federal parliament look like?

To answer this question this far out, requires some assumptions and guess work based upon trends that can be observed.

Its most likely that PAS could win up to 50 seats, cannibalizing seats from Bersatu. Some Bersatu seats were lent to Bersatu for GE15 and PAS wants them back. Amanah could also be eaten up in the coming election, some of their seats going back to PAS.

PH is in a quandary. Many activities that have made PH unpopular actually were undertaken by rogue parts of the bureaucracy. However, PH will most likely pay for these activities electorally. This is going to leave the DAP with fewer seats, maybe with some going to the new Bersama party. PKR’s own electoral research tells the story, unless something drastic happens.

UMNO is a big question mark, which Johor, Negeri Sembilan, and Melaka will answer. If UMNO does well in the south of the Peninsula, this could mean that in a general election that UMNO could win up to 40-50 seats, particularly if Bersatu performs poorly. Hamzah’s new movement is an unknown.

Who will form the next government?

If the voting scenario above occurs, PAS will be in the best position to form a government in coalition with other parties. The most obvious is UMNO (Barisan Nasional). This could give this grouping somewhere close to 100 seats.

The remains of PKR, which could be around a dozen seats could allow PAS/PN to have a simple majority.

Its well known that Ahmad Zahid Hamidi wants to take up the mantle of being PM. However, many dismiss this for a number of reasons (proficiency in English, etc.). Anwar could with agreement of PAS and UMNO take on a second term, although its more likely he may take on a position as a mentor-minister. There are other scenarios which are best to explain later.

The ‘deep state’ elements want an UMNO controlled government. Otherwise, a government with UMNO playing a powerful role. However, there is a group of ‘professionals’ within PAS that want to rid the government of such artifacts. They want to ‘save Malaysia’ and bring back good governance. The more conservative grouping in PAS want to play a ‘backroom role’ in any future government.

Under such as scenario, the DAP and the small number of seats Bersama may win will be banished to the opposition benches in parliament and not heard from.

One can expect that most Sabah MPs in the two blocks Wawasan and GRS will support the new government in exchange for positions and conditions. GPS will decide on what is best for Sarawak.

This scenario has a high possibility looking at the political environment now. After the Johor state election this scenario could be re-evaluated as to its potential reality.