As
Malaysian constituencies are highly malapportioned, some with small
numbers of voters, younger voters make up even larger shares of the vote
in some constituencies.
There are seven state constituencies where younger voters comprise 40 percent (or over) of the vote share.
It
is important to appreciate that state constituencies have considerably
smaller numbers of voters, except those in Selangor, so even small
swings among youth can impact electoral outcomes.
Youth are political movers
Beyond
composition, younger voters are where the action is (or isn’t). The
second factor that makes them electorally important is that they are
disproportionately more politically undecided and simultaneously more
likely to change their vote.
In part, this is because many young
people are less engaged politically, and are less politically literate.
They also do not have strong party loyalties and have been socialised at
a time when changing one’s political support is more common.
As
such, none of the parties should be taking the youths for granted.
Youths are diverse and should not be seen as a cohesive unit. The
challenge is that many youths feel they are not seen at all.
Youths
should not be underestimated in their awareness and frustrations. In
fact, the more overconfident parties are in youth support, the less
likely they are to reap the support they expect from the youth.
Youths are the ground that needs to be won over, although political parties seem to have not fully appreciated this.
Winning younger voters is not just a token RM200 eBelia distribution, but meaningful engagement and respect. The overwhelming issue of concern for younger voters is the economy.
Yet
youth are concerned about the present and future, with different
mindsets from outdated leaders. Compared to older cohorts, younger
Malaysians are also not as hung up on the racist vitriol of older
generations, who continue to stoke division.
There is growing
dissatisfaction among youths with politics in general, especially older
youths in their late 20s who are fed up with parties across the
political divisions.
Equally impactful is that many youths have
yet to decide whether they will vote. The youth turned out in high
numbers in 2022. Yet previous patterns of turnout among younger voters
in state elections show the young turn out the least in these types of
elections.
State elections are not seen as important as GE15 among
the youth. Disproportionately, youth comprise the majority of
outstation voters, especially in locations with limited economic
opportunities as is the case in Kedah and Kelantan.
Many youths
have to assess whether it is worth voting in terms of financial and time
costs. Youths have opted not to return in the recent past. In GE15,
many Kelantanese younger voters did not return to vote, contributing to
the lowest turnout among younger voters in Peninsular Malaysia.
The
(mistaken) sentiment that their vote would not impact the results was
reinforced by the limited engagement of youth by parties in Kelantan.
In
the coming state elections, with a ‘status quo’ view of the potential
results dominant, younger voters may similarly be less inclined to
return, especially as many lack the funds to return due to the still not
yet recovered economy.
This may change as the campaign heats up.
Better machinery and resources contribute to bringing youth voters back,
but the campaigns have gotten off to a comparatively slow start in
engaging voters directly.
In fact, overall, the quality of political engagement with youth has been limited.
Power of youth vote
Turnout, in particular youth turnout, will impact the outcome of the results, as many contests are competitive.
In
my study of the 245 state seats to be contested across the six states
this August, I have assessed 105 as competitive (in varying levels based
on scenarios and local conditions. Note this number will shift after
nomination day).
The majority of competitive seats are in Kedah
and Selangor. Youth will be especially important in these potential
close contests.
To understand the power of youth, one needs to look at whether changes in youth turnout and support will influence the outcome.
Of
the competitive seats based on my pre-nomination scenario analysis,
more than half of these can be influenced by a decisive swing in support
toward a party/candidate by youth.
In a quarter of these, even a modest swing among youth voters will shape the outcome, based on scenario simulations.
Here are some examples:
Based
on my analysis of voting trends and potential trends among younger
voters in GE15, each of these illustrative seats risks being lost to the
incumbent party even with a modest 10 percent swing in support and a
conservative modest drop in support of seven percent.
Of these competitive seats, Galas is the most vulnerable to a youth swing, while Bagan Pinang
is the least. Although the levels of competitiveness will not be
finalised until nomination day when candidates and parties contesting
are finalised, the realities of youth electoral power are real.
In my earlier assessment of generation voting in GE15, there were two distinct electoral support patterns among the youth.
In
Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu, the overwhelming majority of youth
voted for PAS/Perikatan Nasional (estimated 64 percent, 66 percent, and
66 percent respectively.)
While in Harapan-governed states, only a
small share of youth voted for PAS/PN, estimated at 34 percent in
Penang and Selangor and 29 percent in Negeri Sembilan, with the majority
voting for Harapan.
These
coming state elections will test whether young people maintain these
loyalties. If previous elections are an indication, expect patterns to
change. Also expect that if change happens (or does not happen) in the
outcome, youth will be the ones driving it.