Some pointed out that the gender profile was lopsided in the second survey, with 81 percent male and only 19 percent female. As long as the sampling is not random, even if the sample is controlled or adjusted to be half male and half female, the inference may still be off.

Comparing both, I believe that the Malays’ support for Anwar would be slightly above 50 percent but the figure may fluctuate with events. For example, in a month or two after Anwar’s budget, his approval may improve but if Harapan and BN do badly in the midterm state polls, that may drop.

We should welcome more opinion polls, critically assess them, and demand greater rigour, not dismissing polls out of fear and ignorance. Hence, it is unbecoming of Communications and Digital Minister Fahmi Fadzil to question the motive, sincerity, and honesty of the five media organisations that sponsored the second survey.

In comparison, Mohammad Agus Yusoff, the new director-general of the Community Communications Department (Jkom) under the Prime Minister's Department, who is a political scientist by training, offered professional criticism on Facebook, comparing the two surveys and showed a positive attitude towards surveys.

The middle ground

While the numbers from the five-media online survey are inaccurate, their directions nevertheless provide some pointers for us to reflect on.

Surprisingly, of the 21 percent of respondents who chose BN in GE15, 43 percent saw cooperation between parties in the coalition government as “not well”, and 59 percent of them did not accept the collaboration between Harapan and BN.

While the percentage of BN supporters who are negative towards Harapan cannot be ascertained due to a sampling flaw, they likely have contributed significantly to the 53 percent and 60 percent negative Malay opinions.

And if this is the case for BN supporters, what about PN supporters? How likely may they give a positive response to Anwar and the coalition government even if they do right?

This brings us to the question of ‘middle ground’ – the segment of voters that can be open to most political parties and judge fairly.

Different from the sum of swing voters in all constituencies, the middle ground includes voters who may have a strong partisan preference in the election but can maintain a certain degree of objectivity, open-mindedness, and fairness in making post-election judgements.

The middle ground is what allows multiparty competition to be meaningful and productive, as parties have the incentive to compete for swing votes during elections and to appeal for wider support between elections.

If the middle ground disappears, the electoral landscape is left with only partisans of different persuasions, elections become like ‘census’ as parties would be interested only in “calling the votes out” than appealing to voters beyond their base, and intense interparty enmity persists after the election. Of course, there would be no political stability.

Is Malaysia nearing this dystopian situation? If the five-media survey is accurate, we would have much to worry about but also a small hope.

A constant 40 percent of the respondents rated negatively all 28 ministers except two: Anthony Loke (33 percent) and Hannah Yeoh (39 percent). To what extent such broad rejection is not mainly determined by partisan sentiment (‘they cannot do right because they are from the wrong side’)?

The silver lining is that politicians like Loke and Yeoh manage to appeal to the other side (despite being DAP and Chinese staunchly dismissed by PN). Despite the biased sample, Loke won 49 percent approval, Yeoh 39 percent while in comparison, and Anwar 40 percent.

The best protection against a Sheraton Move is a growing middle ground, which includes voters who would vote PN but can still judge and treat the coalition government fairly. In contrast, a deep partisan divide would work better for PN.

Are Anwar and the coalition government working to expand the middle ground? I am afraid I see an opposite strategy – enticing PN voters and swing voters to swing to the government parties by ‘starving the opposition’ in constituency allocation and federal funding.

Yes, if this strategy works, Harapan and BN would be stronger in the state polls.

What if it does not work, as discrimination against the opposition is conveniently framed as discrimination against Malay Muslims?

The middle ground will shrink further so much so that fewer Malays can give Anwar and his government a thumbs up when they do right, and we would be closer to a Sheraton Move 2.0.