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Articles, Opinions & Views: Ukraine a cautionary tale for a China eyeing Taiwan by Kacie Miura

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Ukraine a cautionary tale for a China eyeing Taiwan by Kacie Miura
Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Malaysiakini : The US has encouraged Taiwan to acquire more mobile weapons for its military that would better enable it to carry out asymmetric warfare if faced with an all-out assault by Beijing.

Such efforts would further complicate a Chinese invasion. While a surprise blitzkrieg attack could blunt Taiwanā€™s ability to mount a Ukraine-style resistance, Chinese forces would face the additional obstacle of launching a difficult, full-scale amphibious invasion of the island nation of Taiwan.

All of this compounds the difficulty of achieving forceful reunification for China, which, unlike Russia, has not fought a war in over four decades.

Chinaā€™s leaders also have reason to be unnerved by the breadth and speed of the financial and economic sanctions levied against Moscow.

Of note, the joint effort to sanction Russia included several Asian countries including Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, which have sought to signal their opposition to the invasion of a weaker country by a more powerful neighbour.

International sanctions

While Chinaā€™s economy is much larger than Russiaā€™s, it will not necessarily be more resilient to international sanctions. China is far more integrated into the world economy and international community than Russia.

The Chinese Communist Party has staked its legitimacy on continued economic growth and prosperity, and is likely to be far more sensitive than Russia to economic disruptions.

The Ukraine crisis has understandably led China to double down on its quest for self-reliance. But Beijingā€™s ability to insulate the economy from a hostile foreign environment is riding on strong domestic demand, which its ā€œzero-Covidā€ policy, looming real estate crisis, high debt, and ageing population could undermine.

At the same time, Ukraine has been the recipient of a torrent of military assistance from the US, most European countries, Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea. While this international assistance has not included direct military intervention, it has undeniably added to Moscowā€™s troubles on the battlefield.

Ukraine now has access to a steady supply of military equipment that will help it withstand a war of attrition against its much larger and conventionally more powerful neighbour.

Intelligence shared by the United States has also proven critical ā€“ it handicapped Russiaā€™s invasion by eliminating the element of surprise and has reportedly enabled Ukrainian forces to take out numerous Russian targets.

China should expect assistance to Taiwan by the US and its allies to be just as (if not much more) robust. And while the US has been careful to avoid coming into direct conflict with nuclear-armed Russia, China has little reason to doubt the commitment of the US to defending Taiwan.

US-Taiwan ties may be unofficial, but as the Ukraine crisis has amplified Taiwanā€™s profile, the relationship has only continued to strengthen.

A recent Congressional visit to Taiwan, led by the chairperson of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Bob Menendez, reflects the political will that exists in Washington to support the islandā€™s democracy.

But Russiaā€™s invasion of Ukraine, and the refusal of partners like the US to put boots on the ground, have prompted concerns about the future of Taiwan, a fellow democracy that is also the target of irredentist claims by a nuclear-armed autocratic neighbour.

These concerns have prompted calls, including by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, for the US to make clear that it will defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.

Yet even absent a clear commitment, Russiaā€™s failure to achieve a quick and decisive victory in Ukraine, combined with the devastation to Russiaā€™s economy from wide-ranging international sanctions, may serve to deter China from mounting an invasion anytime soon.

posted by Major D Swami (Retired) @ 8:00 PM  
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