Rudyard Kipling"
āWhen you're left wounded on Afganistan's plains and
the women come out to cut up what remains, Just roll to your rifle
and blow out your brains,
And go to your God like a soldierā
General Douglas MacArthur"
āWe are not retreating. We are advancing in another direction.ā
āIt is fatal to enter any war without the will to win it.ā āOld soldiers never die; they just fade away.
āThe soldier, above all other people, prays for peace, for he must suffer and be the deepest wounds and scars of war.ā
āMay God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't .ā āThe object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his.
āNobody ever defended, there is only attack and attack and attack some more.
āIt is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died. Rather we should thank God that such men lived.
The Soldier stood and faced God
Which must always come to pass
He hoped his shoes were shining
Just as bright as his brass
"Step forward you Soldier,
How shall I deal with you?
Have you always turned the other cheek?
To My Church have you been true?"
"No, Lord, I guess I ain't
Because those of us who carry guns
Can't always be a saint."
I've had to work on Sundays
And at times my talk was tough,
And sometimes I've been violent,
Because the world is awfully rough.
But, I never took a penny
That wasn't mine to keep.
Though I worked a lot of overtime
When the bills got just too steep,
The Soldier squared his shoulders and said
And I never passed a cry for help
Though at times I shook with fear,
And sometimes, God forgive me,
I've wept unmanly tears.
I know I don't deserve a place
Among the people here.
They never wanted me around
Except to calm their fears.
If you've a place for me here,
Lord, It needn't be so grand,
I never expected or had too much,
But if you don't, I'll understand."
There was silence all around the throne
Where the saints had often trod
As the Soldier waited quietly,
For the judgment of his God.
"Step forward now, you Soldier,
You've borne your burden well.
Walk peacefully on Heaven's streets,
You've done your time in Hell."
The tide is turning, Harapan can win outright By P Gunasegaram
Thursday, November 17, 2022
Malaysiakini : Zahidās several references
to the king deciding who becomes PM has not helped and strengthened the
belief that he would become PM if Umno/BN had a large number of seats,
an unacceptable situation to many who donāt want a PM with the albatross
of corruption hanging heavily around his neck.
Many do not want Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to be the next PM
A
hurried denial by top Umno/BN leaders that caretaker PM Ismail Sabri
Yaakob will still be retained felt more like the rearguard action of a
retreating army than an offensive to regain the support of the people.
While
Umno floundered, largely because of Zahidās desperation to stay
relevant and in power, its slack was picked up by Harapan and PN,
boosting the chances of both coalitions at the polls. This has put
Harapan in a stronger position than earlier thought.
Survey details
Are
there numbers to back this? Yes, there is. There are two respected
public survey firms in Malaysia. The first is Ibrahim Suffianās Merdeka
Center. The other is PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramliās Invoke, which
incidentally was the only survey firm to predict a Harapan victory at
GE14 in 2018.
Both have predicted that Harapan would win over 90
seats at GE15 but these are based on surveys which were done earlier. It
is likely that as Umno/BN floats rudderless without an election
strategy and gains made by Harapan and PN, the situation has shifted
further.
While Invokeās survey details are not public, the one by
Merdeka Center has been circulating on social media. Some extracts from
the survey (see table below) will serve to illustrate our points. The
survey was conducted Nov 3-11, which means things could have changed -
and if they have, the shift is likely to be negative for Umno/BN and
positive for Harapan.
The overall numbers are rather interesting.
Merdeka Center is projecting a total of 99 seats for Harapan, 48 seats
for PN and just 32 seats for BN/Umno. Even if BN and PN combined, which
is likely, the total number of seats is just 80 seats, 19 seats less
than that of Harapanās. The survey error is estimated at plus or minus 3
percent.
The
breakdown of seats allocated in terms of safe, marginal and ātoo close
to callā are also given. There are 32 seats which are too close to call
and 15 of these were allocated to Harapan in the final estimate.
What
is shocking is that BN has just eight safe seats. PN has 31 and Harapan
69. However, if there is a shift in Malay voter sentiment in favour of
Harapan, then more seats are likely to go to Harapan.
This
argument is reinforced by Merdeka Centerās estimated popular vote (see
table below), with Harapan garnering nearly 44 percent, more than any
other party by far with a 15 percentage point lead. But note that the
total of PN and BN comes up to 54.6 percent.
But because BN and PN
are contesting against each other everywhere, Harapan has a decisive
advantage in almost all seats except those with a very high percentage
of Malays - the Malay heartland states of Terengganu and Kelantan where
PAS reigns supreme and therefore has a clear advantage in those areas.
Admittedly
BN and PN have majority Malay support but that is not enough to garner
them victory because of the split in Malay votes.
If
a seat has the exact demographics as the one in the above table and the
same voting percentages of support, then Harapan will easily win this
seat by some 15 percentage points because the popular votes are divided
between PN and BN, even though their combined vote is more than that of
Harapan.
The point to note is that with the current average
demographic and the current support levels, it appears likely Harapan
can win more seats than predicted by the Merdeka Center survey.
Calculations indicate that it is possible for Harapan to win even when
seats are 70 percent Malay, under the current split of Malay votes.
The
situation is likely to improve further if Harapan makes greater inroads
for Malay support and an even larger number of non-Malays support it in
the last few days to polls, perhaps enough to give it a simple majority
and beyond.
Under the current over-conservative scenario from
Harapanās perspective, Merdeka Centerās forecast of 99 seats for Harapan
is just 13 seats short of majority, not impossible for Harapan to
bridge the difference.
The message is clear - those who are still
sitting on the fence and refuse to vote in despair of a Harapan loss
should change their positions and go out there and vote. Simply make
your voice heard, and that may well be enough for progressive change.
Know
who your enemy is. It is not the other race and religion but the
politicians who use race and religion to divide you so that they can
continue to rule. Refuse to be baited and go out there and vote for the
better team.
And then we can resume the change that we
collectively started, but this time more fairly and with real thought
and consideration for all of us who call this country our home.
Letās
say āenough!ā to the continued looting, rape, pillage and plunder of
our nation and use our collective voice for change. Letās not be
silenced anymore.
Hope springs eternal. Letās keep it alive - for always.
