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Articles, Opinions & Views: The tide is turning, Harapan can win outright By P Gunasegaram

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No Atheists
In A Foxhole

Rudyard Kipling

" ā€œWhen you're left wounded on
Afganistan's plains and

the women come out to cut up what remains,
Just roll to your rifle

and blow out your brains,
And go to your God like a soldierā€
General Douglas MacArthur

" ā€œWe are not retreating. We are advancing in another direction.ā€

ā€œIt is fatal to enter any war without the will to win it.ā€
ā€œOld soldiers never die; they just fade away.
ā€œThe soldier, above all other people, prays for peace,
for he must suffer and be the deepest wounds and scars of war.ā€
ā€œMay God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't .ā€
ā€œThe object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his.

ā€œNobody ever defended, there is only attack and attack and attack some more.
ā€œIt is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died.
Rather we should thank God that such men lived.
The Soldier stood and faced God
Which must always come to pass
He hoped his shoes were shining
Just as bright as his brass
"Step forward you Soldier,
How shall I deal with you?
Have you always turned the other cheek?
To My Church have you been true?"
"No, Lord, I guess I ain't
Because those of us who carry guns
Can't always be a saint."
I've had to work on Sundays
And at times my talk was tough,
And sometimes I've been violent,
Because the world is awfully rough.
But, I never took a penny
That wasn't mine to keep.
Though I worked a lot of overtime
When the bills got just too steep,
The Soldier squared his shoulders and said
And I never passed a cry for help
Though at times I shook with fear,
And sometimes, God forgive me,
I've wept unmanly tears.
I know I don't deserve a place
Among the people here.
They never wanted me around
Except to calm their fears.
If you've a place for me here,
Lord, It needn't be so grand,
I never expected or had too much,
But if you don't, I'll understand."
There was silence all around the throne
Where the saints had often trod
As the Soldier waited quietly,
For the judgment of his God.
"Step forward now, you Soldier,
You've borne your burden well.
Walk peacefully on Heaven's streets,
You've done your time in Hell."

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The tide is turning, Harapan can win outright By P Gunasegaram
Thursday, November 17, 2022

Malaysiakini : Zahidā€™s several references to the king deciding who becomes PM has not helped and strengthened the belief that he would become PM if Umno/BN had a large number of seats, an unacceptable situation to many who donā€™t want a PM with the albatross of corruption hanging heavily around his neck.

Many do not want Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi to be the next PM

A hurried denial by top Umno/BN leaders that caretaker PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob will still be retained felt more like the rearguard action of a retreating army than an offensive to regain the support of the people.

While Umno floundered, largely because of Zahidā€™s desperation to stay relevant and in power, its slack was picked up by Harapan and PN, boosting the chances of both coalitions at the polls. This has put Harapan in a stronger position than earlier thought.

Survey details

Are there numbers to back this? Yes, there is. There are two respected public survey firms in Malaysia. The first is Ibrahim Suffianā€™s Merdeka Center. The other is PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramliā€™s Invoke, which incidentally was the only survey firm to predict a Harapan victory at GE14 in 2018.

Both have predicted that Harapan would win over 90 seats at GE15 but these are based on surveys which were done earlier. It is likely that as Umno/BN floats rudderless without an election strategy and gains made by Harapan and PN, the situation has shifted further.

While Invokeā€™s survey details are not public, the one by Merdeka Center has been circulating on social media. Some extracts from the survey (see table below) will serve to illustrate our points. The survey was conducted Nov 3-11, which means things could have changed - and if they have, the shift is likely to be negative for Umno/BN and positive for Harapan.

The overall numbers are rather interesting. Merdeka Center is projecting a total of 99 seats for Harapan, 48 seats for PN and just 32 seats for BN/Umno. Even if BN and PN combined, which is likely, the total number of seats is just 80 seats, 19 seats less than that of Harapanā€™s. The survey error is estimated at plus or minus 3 percent.

The breakdown of seats allocated in terms of safe, marginal and ā€œtoo close to callā€ are also given. There are 32 seats which are too close to call and 15 of these were allocated to Harapan in the final estimate.

What is shocking is that BN has just eight safe seats. PN has 31 and Harapan 69. However, if there is a shift in Malay voter sentiment in favour of Harapan, then more seats are likely to go to Harapan.

This argument is reinforced by Merdeka Centerā€™s estimated popular vote (see table below), with Harapan garnering nearly 44 percent, more than any other party by far with a 15 percentage point lead. But note that the total of PN and BN comes up to 54.6 percent.

But because BN and PN are contesting against each other everywhere, Harapan has a decisive advantage in almost all seats except those with a very high percentage of Malays - the Malay heartland states of Terengganu and Kelantan where PAS reigns supreme and therefore has a clear advantage in those areas.

Admittedly BN and PN have majority Malay support but that is not enough to garner them victory because of the split in Malay votes.

If a seat has the exact demographics as the one in the above table and the same voting percentages of support, then Harapan will easily win this seat by some 15 percentage points because the popular votes are divided between PN and BN, even though their combined vote is more than that of Harapan.

The point to note is that with the current average demographic and the current support levels, it appears likely Harapan can win more seats than predicted by the Merdeka Center survey. Calculations indicate that it is possible for Harapan to win even when seats are 70 percent Malay, under the current split of Malay votes.

The situation is likely to improve further if Harapan makes greater inroads for Malay support and an even larger number of non-Malays support it in the last few days to polls, perhaps enough to give it a simple majority and beyond.

Under the current over-conservative scenario from Harapanā€™s perspective, Merdeka Centerā€™s forecast of 99 seats for Harapan is just 13 seats short of majority, not impossible for Harapan to bridge the difference.

The message is clear - those who are still sitting on the fence and refuse to vote in despair of a Harapan loss should change their positions and go out there and vote. Simply make your voice heard, and that may well be enough for progressive change.

Know who your enemy is. It is not the other race and religion but the politicians who use race and religion to divide you so that they can continue to rule. Refuse to be baited and go out there and vote for the better team.

And then we can resume the change that we collectively started, but this time more fairly and with real thought and consideration for all of us who call this country our home.

Letā€™s say ā€œenough!ā€ to the continued looting, rape, pillage and plunder of our nation and use our collective voice for change. Letā€™s not be silenced anymore.

Hope springs eternal. Letā€™s keep it alive - for always.

posted by Major D Swami (Retired) @ 8:19 AM  
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