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Articles, Opinions & Views: How Najib, Rosmah will affect GE15 plans By P Gunasegaram

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Rudyard Kipling

" ā€œWhen you're left wounded on
Afganistan's plains and

the women come out to cut up what remains,
Just roll to your rifle

and blow out your brains,
And go to your God like a soldierā€
General Douglas MacArthur

" ā€œWe are not retreating. We are advancing in another direction.ā€

ā€œIt is fatal to enter any war without the will to win it.ā€
ā€œOld soldiers never die; they just fade away.
ā€œThe soldier, above all other people, prays for peace,
for he must suffer and be the deepest wounds and scars of war.ā€
ā€œMay God have mercy upon my enemies, because I won't .ā€
ā€œThe object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his.

ā€œNobody ever defended, there is only attack and attack and attack some more.
ā€œIt is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died.
Rather we should thank God that such men lived.
The Soldier stood and faced God
Which must always come to pass
He hoped his shoes were shining
Just as bright as his brass
"Step forward you Soldier,
How shall I deal with you?
Have you always turned the other cheek?
To My Church have you been true?"
"No, Lord, I guess I ain't
Because those of us who carry guns
Can't always be a saint."
I've had to work on Sundays
And at times my talk was tough,
And sometimes I've been violent,
Because the world is awfully rough.
But, I never took a penny
That wasn't mine to keep.
Though I worked a lot of overtime
When the bills got just too steep,
The Soldier squared his shoulders and said
And I never passed a cry for help
Though at times I shook with fear,
And sometimes, God forgive me,
I've wept unmanly tears.
I know I don't deserve a place
Among the people here.
They never wanted me around
Except to calm their fears.
If you've a place for me here,
Lord, It needn't be so grand,
I never expected or had too much,
But if you don't, I'll understand."
There was silence all around the throne
Where the saints had often trod
As the Soldier waited quietly,
For the judgment of his God.
"Step forward now, you Soldier,
You've borne your burden well.
Walk peacefully on Heaven's streets,
You've done your time in Hell."

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How Najib, Rosmah will affect GE15 plans By P Gunasegaram
Friday, September 02, 2022

Malaysiakini : BN, in terms of numbers, is currently the weakest with 41 MPs, but to be fair at the end of GE14 in May 2018, they had 54 MPs, the numbers being whittled down by defections mainly to Bersatu.

PN comes next with 47 MPs but one has to remember that Bersatu only had 13 MPs at the end of GE14, its numbers being inflated by defections from Umno and PKR. And then comes Harapan with the largest number of 90. PKR saw its numbers reduced from 47 at the end of GE14 to 36 due to defections by the Azmin Ali gang.

BN, PN and GPS combine for a total of 107 seats, still short of five seats for an absolute majority. One of Azminā€™s gang, Zuraida Kamaruddinā€™s Parti Bangsa Malaysia or PBSā€™s four seats takes it up to 111 and other independents and parties take it up to 116, giving this grouping a five-seat majority in the 222-seat Parliament.

This is, of course, a fragile majority needing only three to jump ship for a change in government but the government has been considerably stabilised after Harapan signed a memorandum of understanding to support Ismail Sabri Yaakobā€™s government under some conditions in September last year.

Thatā€™s the backdrop. Meantime, Umno/BN has been encouraged by wins at state elections in Malacca and Johor against mainly PN and Harapan, but in both instances they did not get a majority of the popular votes, perhaps indicating some vulnerability.

Pressure on PM for early GE

While the court cluster within Umno, for obvious reasons, wants the elections to be hurried, Ismail Sabri on the other hand prefers to take it slow and easy, wait for the courts to get the cluster out of the way and ensure a smoother path towards his eventual leadership.

But that may not transpire because considerable pressure is being applied on him and he seemed to be succumbing by bringing the national budget announcement to the first week of October instead of the end of the month. Why, he is even considering delivering the budget instead of the finance minister, probably for the optics it gives to improve his standing among Malaysians.

Bets are now on the elections being held before the end of the year. But one canā€™t discount totally that when the heat subsides and when he can muster enough support within Umno, Ismail Sabri may still want to delay it to next year.

From Umnoā€™s point of view, but not the court clusterā€™s, it may even be better. A whole nation has been nauseated by the moves of some Umno leaders to urge the king for a pardon for Najib when he has only barely begun serving the sentence.

That would not sit well with a large section of the populace. How could you set free a convicted criminal even before he has served a significant amount of the sentence? And how can you justify this when he is facing numerous other charges involving billions of ringgit?

What the court cluster within Umno is pushing for seems way over the top and is likely to anger many leaders within Umno - in fact when Umno secretary-general Ahmad Maslan called for a special meeting of divisional heads to discuss the issue, only 71 out of 191 attended.

Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob

If Ismail Sabri bides his time and waits till next year to ask the king to dissolve Parliament, the economy would have shown strong recovery by then, budget measures would have begun to bite, the embarrassment of the court cluster would be well out of the way and he will be better able to present the picture of a resurgent Umno.

The only advantage of an early election is that Harapan does not still have a complete strategy over the Malacca/Johor debacles but it is recovering fast under measures taken by PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli to up its profile and make some decisions, including the important one of going it alone for the next elections.

But thatā€™s offset by Najib going to jail and Rosmah being found guilty and the raucous, un-statesmen-like behaviour of the Umno court cluster which can only be negative for Umno.

While Umno has traditionally been strong in Johor and Malacca, they underestimate PASā€™ hold in the rest of the Malay heartland at their own peril. PAS has always had a strong presence in these areas. If they jettison PAS and Muafakat Nasional - the grouping of the ummah - Umno may not do as well if it goes on its own.

Those are broad brush strokes but Ismail is probably politically savvy enough to understand that while Umno succeeded in Malacca and Johor when it went solo, that may not work at the general elections when Malaysians are likely to look more at national interests.

There are too many imponderables at play right now.

posted by Major D Swami (Retired) @ 9:55 AM  
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