Siti Kasim Human Rights Lawyer

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Malaysiakini : COMMENT | The Johor state election has just concluded with a big thud for the forces of reform, just as it did after the Malacca polls.

I have been reading analysis upon analysis then and now, and somehow I must say I am puzzled on why no one seems to see why the results are such. But then, it is no surprise. Wisdom is not conventional.

Most people, especially the elite class of commentators who de-cry the Bangsar Bubble, as if they are not of it, what more if they have been invested in the fortunes of political elites and dynasties and their narrative, over decades now, cannot bring themselves to accept the reality on the ground. 

Me, I've lived among our people in the forests and seen their pain and hurt. I've gone to many kampung and sat with makcik and pakcik whilst my fellow lawyers and I defend cases no one cares about.

Yes, in spite of what the internet says.  I've gone and sat on a routine basis, having my favourite cockles and invites from the small-time open-air Chinese warung and hearing what they say. And when I come back to the city I tell people - you guys got it wrong. 

Let us just look firstly at the data and make a quantitative judgment call on what it means before I make my qualitative analysis: 

1. Voter turnout was barely above 50 percent. To me, it spells voter apathy. Voters are not motivated to turn up to the polls. The question then is, why?

2. The votes for Perikatan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan combined would have mostly defeated BN in almost all seats. What does that tell us? BN is not back in favour from a constituency standpoint.  But at the same time, there is no opposition bloc that is viable to form an alternative government acceptable to all sides of that constituency.  So, let's put aside all talks of gerrymandering being a determinant issue. 

To me, this data tells me that BN maintained its voter base and they came out to vote.  The youth vote as a result of Undi18 was practically un-impactful with only 20 percent of the total voter turnout. 

DAP could not get its voters out with the same rigour of previous elections.  In spite of that, the opposition is basically DAP.

PKR - let's call it as we see it: it is finished.  It is, in its present form, an obsolete party.  When the fish rots it rots from the top. 

In short, unlike GE14, the opposition bloc does not have a viable Malay alternative that this segment of the constituency can rally under. There is no leadership that the people can see the opposition has that it can believe in. 

Analysis and thoughts

Here, my dear fellow citizens, are my humble analysis and thoughts: 

First of all, none of this is unexpected for people like me. We knew the demographics that will turn out and why. Those who turned out are relatively hardcore political party sympathisers. 

It is not an endorsement of former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak or Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. It is that Umno will deliver its core base of voters who still feel they need the protection of Malay political supremacy to ensure their well-being and survival. 

The same goes for the DAP.  The party supporters turned out.  The ones who did not were those majority from all walks of life non-Malays who have now lost hope and feel helpless about the future and what it holds for them and their families. 

The elephant in the room that many refuse to recognise, that has lost its way, lost its credibility and lost itself as an entity is PKR.  Two state elections now have shown PKR the door.  PKR came into existence due to two factors: 

1. The mirage that it is a reformist party of a reformer in the person of its then imprisoned leader, Anwar Ibrahim.  Unfortunately, that particular image has been found to be false as soon as it gained power.  Its leader is and was nothing more than an Umno warlord who lost a power struggle and paid for the consequence of it.  The thirst for being Numero Uno was all that matters for the leader and the warlords within PKR.  It was not Dr Mahathir Mohamad who was the sole reason for the break up of the Harapan government, as PKR supporters like to point out to deflect the blame.  It was greed for power in the Umno DNA within Harapan that did the deed.  And that DNA was and still is leading PKR. 

2. PKR is now the Semangat 46 with the facade of a multi-racial political party. Imagine a party with so much infrastructure and money, the very essence of what so-called pragmatists have been saying is what is needed to win elections - but it cannot even muster two percent of the popular vote.  PKR is as good as unknown independents that they scoff at for being spoilers in an election, a non-factor and yet still wants to smugly hold the mantle of the opposition leadership.  What leadership? It cannot even hold its own party together. 

Where does the nation go from here?  We are now going to be saddled with the return of an incompetent and corrupted BN with a theocratic partner in PAS.  The nation is on the road to doom.  And yet people did not turn out to vote. Why? 

I think we need to stop talking about the past. The 1MDB has been prosecuted.  If we don't correct the future even that will be for nothing. 

The fact that someone went to jail for losing the Umno power struggle does not make him a reform idol or the hope of a nation, and the people have now spoken - twice.  Please go away. 

This is something that commentators, political leaders and analysts need to recognise.  An election is not about the past.  It is about the future.  It is about having hope for the future. 

People turn up to vote when they are hopeful for the change that can happen.  They come out early and wait in line in the hot sun, clinging on to hope. 

When there is no hope for a sale, there is nothing for them to drag themselves out. It is that hope that makes them go out every day to earn a living for their family. It is that hope that has been lost. 

We have to start afresh

I am going to be very blunt in my assessment and what I believe is the only solution for our future for our people. 

DAP is now the largest opposition party.  The people still have some hope for it.  If it does not act decisively before the next GE, the people will too lose that banner of hope. It needs to take leadership in deciding who it thinks the rest of the opposition constituency wants to lead them. 

PKR is not it.  We have to start afresh.  Even if we do not regain the governance in the next GE, we need to raise up true leadership for all Malaysians. 

The non-Malays, Sabahans and Sarawakians need to see the sincerity in the leadership that will forge together a strong coalition that has the courage of its conviction. 

What it sees today is a coalition that depends on a Malay leadership that even when given power was only interested in jostling to be the prime minister, instead of focusing and leading the challenge on how to deal with the ills of our society - the suffocating of religion in education and governance and the freeing of the economy from crony capitalistic bureaucracy.

In fact, this segment of our society sees the Malay opposition bloc led by PKR to be at best silent when faced with these issues and at worst, complicit. 

They only need to see that, whenever non-Muslim interests are under attack by extremist elements in Malay society, the Malay leadership in the opposition are deathly quiet.  There is no leadership to speak of to give them the hope that they and their future are being cared for. 

The Malays that want to support an alternative do not seem to be able to hold on to real leadership. Today, many of the old have forgotten and the young never knew of the 2M administration of Mahathir and Musa Hitam that burst onto the scene in 1981, bringing a progressive hope for a self-confident Malay society and a multiracial developing Malaysian citizenry. 

That administration showed a different way to progress through science and technology and international trade and commerce. There was none of the obsession with religion and the religious industrial complex that has grown to what it is today.

That only came to being after Mahathir's obsession with Islamisation in governance went on steroids after Anwar's admission into Umno to be the bulwark against the PAS challenge. 

By the way, most do not realise that whenever or wherever I go to give my own talks on the need for separation of religion and state to Malays, even in rural or semi-rural settings, the reception has always been positive. 

It is the way it is presented that is important, to show how religion is being used to keep the Malays down for votes and for wealth by those in power.  But, most of all to even do that, one has to have the courage of leadership to know that right is might. 

What the 2M phenomenon of the early 80s showed, was that the right leadership is the key to success.  We did not follow that through.  Singapore did and we are left behind. 

The Malays are now the bulk of the urban poor and this problem will grow. The government and society will not have enough to alleviate this problem very soon in the future.  We need real leadership and that will not come from the old political warlords that we have today.

A new coalition needs to be built and a new leadership needs to emerge.  Perhaps a new coalition of opposition comprising DAP, Muda, Warisan and Gerak Independent.  Drop the rest.