Also present were PN chairperson Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar, Gerakan president Dominic Lau, and Kelantan Menteri Besar Nassuruddin Daud. Significantly, Samsuri is a rising star within PAS and vice president.

It is often speculated that either he or Hamzah may be prime ministerial material if PAS should be asked to form the next government.

Hadi also announced in his officiating speech at the so-called “Reset” convention on Saturday that PAS and its allies within PN have decided to retain Hamzah as its parliamentary opposition leader.

Now, this coalition seems rather strange considering that PAS and Bersatu are the main parties in it and PAS has announced they are cutting political ties with Bersatu. But it looks like if the PN coalition remains, it will be controlled by PAS and Wawasan Negara, sidelining Muhyiddin.

Hamzah’s Wawasan Negara has the backing of 19 previous Bersatu MPs, leaving six with Muhyiddin. Together with PAS’ 43, they form the backbone, accounting for 62 of PN’s 68 seats. The other two parties, Gerakan and MIPP, don’t have any seats.

PAS in strong position

And then on Saturday night too, former Umno member and minister, lawyer Zaid Ibrahim, joined PAS. He said in a Facebook post on Sunday: “Last night I was welcomed as a PAS member by its top national leaders. They're warm, sincere, and friendly.

“I will repay their faith. I will work hard to dispel the image of PAS as an extreme anti-democratic party, not suitable for a multicultural Malaysia.

“On the contrary, PAS is the only Malay-majority party with the strength and resolve to do away with inequality, hegemony and class preferences. The essence of Islam will be the governing principle.

“You will not have under the PAS rule where we are described as equal, but some are more equal than others. That's why PAS will govern Malaysia together with like-minded progressive MPs after the next GE.”

That’s a coup of sorts for PAS: a Malay liberal who has previously been a member of Umno, DAP and PKR - the three other major parties in Malaysia besides PAS - has unequivocally endorsed PAS. A feather in PAS’ cap even if one thought of Zaid as an itinerant party hopper.

The developments perhaps favour PAS most, which seems to have a more coherent strategy going forward than the other three major parties, PKR, DAP and Umno/BN. Bersatu had previously rode on PAS’ robes to gain 25 seats but is now left with six.

By aligning with Wawasan Negara, PAS hopes to have some semblance of multiracialism and moderation. That is helped by Zaid coming into PAS and extolling its virtues, including an endorsement as the only party which might work for all.

Together with the groundwork that it has been doing to strengthen its position and extend its support base, PAS is probably the strongest, best organised party going into the polls and stands the best chance of getting the greatest number of seats for the second time in a row.

Umno is all gung-ho about Johor, but as with previous polls, it has no standing in the Malay heartland where PAS and its allies reign supreme. Even if it retains Johor, it is not likely to do much better elsewhere.

PAS is too smart to ally with Umno in areas where it is dominant, although Umno may make overtures in that direction. Umno’s performance is likely to be middling or even worse at GE16 for Parliament. It has nothing new to offer.

With Chinese and non-Malay support, DAP will still likely pull through but probably could lose seats because of its voicelessness on important issues and the rising support for the Bersama duo, Rafizi and Nik Nazmi, where they are likely to take some urban votes from DAP.

The party most likely to be wiped out in the next election is Bersatu, and with it the exit of Muhyiddin from politics. Its standing of 25 seats in the last election is most likely entirely due to aligning with PAS. They could lose all their seats.

Uncertain future

Anwar’s PKR faces a rather uncertain future from Bersama, which is mounting a credible, coordinated and early challenge to almost all of PKR’s seats, with 10 MPs already in the bag by some counts.

Peculiarly, any support that Anwar may have through Harapan post GE16 may continue to come from DAP, the largest party in the coalition with 40 seats compared to PKR’s 31 and Umno/BN’s 30.

It’s hard to see how Anwar can win enough to ensure the largest number of seats for Harapan to ensure he gets a chance to form the government again. That is likely to pass on to PAS.

It’s unlikely that even if there was some kind of electoral pact with PAS, the Islamic party will give up an opportunity to get its own prime minister. Anwar must be able to see this and therefore will likely go for a full term and announce his resignation before the polls.

As for dark horse Bersama, it is likely to make a significant impact by taking seats in urban areas previously the domain of PKR and even DAP. They may do very much better than expected, but even if they don’t, they will likely set a base for the future by retaining their deposits.

As the only party which has nothing to lose and everything to gain, the possibility for significant upside surprise for Bersama cannot be dismissed. They are, so far, acting true to their intentions, asking for a review of Selangor’s controversial guidelines for places of worship of non-Muslims, for instance.

One thing for sure, this is not an election that Malaysians are going to sit out. Expect participation to increase even if early polls are not called.