This may give PKR a chance in seats like Merotai (where Anwar visited three times), Kamarunting and Inanam, but trust in Anwar has dropped considerably, replaced in many cases by an outright “tolak” (reject) push.

5. Reduced BN: Steady but eroded support

Umno-BN is fighting for its political life in Sabah. The state has long been an integral part of Umno’s national strength and, in turn, Umno has been an integral part of the state since its entry in 1994.

BN lacks the resources of the past and has been more focused in its outreach due to less resources. It has opted for a steady, ground candidate-centred (but uneven) campaign, hoping that a renewal of its candidates and efforts to strengthen its engagement around “buat kerja” (do work) and representing its traditional core supporters will yield results.

The last few days of this campaign will be instrumental for BN, which looks to reduce its seats from the 14 it won in 2020. If things go BN’s way it could win 20, but it looks more likely to win less than 10 seats.

If the money tide turns against them, BN could win less than even five seats. Here too, BN’s machinery will be critical if it can bring out their traditional voters in what is expected to be challenging weather tomorrow.

6. Expect the unexpected underdog

The uncertainty around the poll points to the emergence of smaller political forces. Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (Star), Upko, Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM), Black Wave and PN are all underdogs in this campaign, although in particular seats some of these parties are favoured.

Good examples are Ewon in Kadamaian and Wetrom Bahanda in Matunggong.

All of these parties should win at least one seat, with the exception of PN. PAS has a chance in both Karambunai and Balung, largely due to their social media and stealth (look like Sabahans, not traditional PAS members) campaigns.

Bersatu’s Ronald Kiandee in Sugut and Labuk cannot be ruled out, but these areas have been GRS bombed with resources multiple times.

PN faces a test to see if they are a national opposition/coalition and have tapped into youth support with targeted resources, despite challenges. Sabah has been difficult terrain for these parties since the end of the Muhyiddin Yassin Bersatu-led government.

Upko, Star, KDM and the Black Wave have all been working to win support, especially among Kadazan-Dusun-Murut-Rungus voters. Upko and Star have had the best narratives, both relying on sentiment with limited resources, while KDM and Black Wave have been primarily candidate-based with flush resources from unknown sources.

Three Independents to watch are Fairuz Redden in Pintasan, Verdon Bahanda in Tanjong Kapor and Jordan Ellron in Tulid.

Sabah always brings surprises. No question some of these underdog smaller parties/individuals will win seats, and they will be pivotal in whichever coalition/party is able to form government.

The campaign is coming down to the wire. My overview – based on ground fieldwork and an appreciation of uncertainties (money/machinery flow) as of this morning shows more than a third of the seats too close/uncertain to call.

Among the 27 uncertain seats are Bandau, Tamparuli, Tanjong Kapor, Paginatan, Bingkor, Karambunai, Petagas, Pantai Manis, Sindumin, Kukusan, Melalap, Sungai Sibuga, Sekong, to name just a few of these.

This uncertain group is where the balance of power will swing, to which party/coalition will have the most seats to negotiate from.

Discussions about alliances have been underway and likely will intensify after tomorrow. For now, however, the balance of power will be in the hands of Sabahans.

Until the end of polling tomorrow, after which the men will sing, Sabahans have more power to determine the outcome than ever. Every vote will count in these contests, especially in the swing, uncertain seats.

Whatever happens, however, one message will be clear. Sabahans want more power, local voices and representation. Whoever will be the ones entrusted to deliver on this message remains uncertain.